Justin Robert Young Is Throw Down A Tarp

The New York Times takes a look at the fate of the first GOP debate set for May 2nd which may result in a back and forth where the biggest names (read: Palin, Romney, Huckabee) could be conspicuous by their absence. But why would they join the race if they don’t have to?

The biggest goal for a candidate in the primaries is a message to base, prove to the establishment that you are a viable candidate that can rally the key demos come the general and fund raise. While the second reason is still something that will be determined on the campaign trail, in 2011, the other two are best achieved via social media.

Karl Rove, love him or hate him, knows more about getting Republicans elected than anyone on the planet who’s willing to talk about it. In a recent Wall Street Journal OpEd piece he details exactly how Twitter streams and Facebook updates have become the most effective megaphone for a candidate to express their message. Not to mention the Beverly Hillbillies style gusher for fund raising…

Then there’s fund raising. A powerful, and some might say strident, message can quickly generate lots of cash. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann raised an astounding $13.2 million for her last race, much of it through Internet appeals. In the closing days of his special election in January 2010, Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown raised more money from the Internet than he could spend.

So, if you are Romney, who benefits from being quiet and competent as a mainstream candidate specifically while Obama looks all over the map. Or Huckabee, who saw a fast start after Iowa amount to a pile of butts last cycle. Or Palin, whose every gaffe on this campaign trail is going to dwarf Rachel Black in YouTube views. Why would you want to get into a debate, where the only thing that can go right is not screwing up?

You can not screw up at home. Eating ice cream. Without pants.

They can still tell their base what they think. They can even live tweet the debate and answer all the questions on their own terms, in 140 character chucks. Then they can link to their donation page and raise money as a very angry GOP base begins to think more and more about 2012.

So May 2nd comes and you might see someone like Tim Pawlenty, who just announced his exploratory committee, make a bit of a statement. Otherwise it’ll be a bunch of C-listers who will be happy to get the air time and possibly curry favor as possible VP or cabinet pick later on. If the GOP field were Batman villains… we’d be seeing a gathering of Man-Bat, Clayface and Soloman Grundy. Meanwhile, the big story the next day will be when The Joker, The Penguin and Catwoman are going to show up.